Showing posts with label Technical Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Technical Analysis. Show all posts

Saturday, 6 December 2008

How currency exchange (FOREX) markets work

I bet you are well aware of the existent of Forex trading nowadays. Forex market exists wherever one currency is traded for another. Forex, or Foreign Exchange Market, is generally works as an international currency exchange market. Investors and speculators are allowed to trade currencies from all around the world thru Forex trading.

Forex is a very unique type of trading where traders are buying and selling 'money' in the same time. The trades are done in pairs, such as Euro/JPY, USD/CHF, and CAD/USD. It is the world largest trading market where an average of $1.9 trillion trades is done on a daily basis. The turnover rates in FOREX are nearly 30 times larger than the total volume of equity trades in United States.

Despite its large volume of trades done daily, Forex is relative new to the publics nonetheless. It is only made available to publics in year 1998 where big sized inter-bank units are sliced into smaller pieces and offered to individual traders like you and me. Before that, Forex is a game only for banks, multi national cooperation, and big currency dealers. Only those with large business size and strong financial background were permitted to trade foreign currencies.

Facts about Forex market
As a matter of fact, large international banks are still the major traders in currency exchange market. Deutsche Bank is one of the top currency traders; along with other major banks like UBS, Citi Group, HSBC, Barclays, J. P. Morgan Chase, Coldman Sachs, ABN Amro, Morgan Stanley, and Merril Lynch; these banks are said to be responsible for more than 70% trades in currency market.

When you are trading Forex with currency dealer, the Forex quotes might look a bit different from our previous example. Often, a two-sided quote, consisting of 'bid' and 'ask' price, is listed when dealing with currency brokers. For example, EUR/USD 1.2385/1.2390: 1.2385 is known as the 'bid' price while 1.2390 is commonly known as the 'ask' or 'buy' price. The 'bid' is the price at which you can sell the base currency; while the 'ask' is the price at which you can buy the base currency. As you study the numbers, you might realize that the two-sided currency price is quoted against you.

Traders are forced to buy the currency in a higher price than the selling one. This is done because FOREX trades are done without any commission chargers. Thru quoting currency 'bid & ask' price differently in this way, the currency brokers are manage to make profit without charging their client commission fees directly.

Fundamental analysis and Technical analysis in Forex
Fundamental Analysis refers to the study of the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. As in Forex trading, government policies, bank policies, natural disasters, and speculators mood are some of the fundamentals considered to predict the currency market trends. Fundamental FOREX traders will review a country economy's situation base on these fundamental elements and respond accordingly. To gain max, fundamentalists often apply precise method to convert study's results into accurate entry/exit price indicator.

Technical Analysis, on the other hand, is a completely different story. Instead of reviewing on the fundamental issues, traders from the technical side define market movement according to data purely generated from the market. The term 'Technical' is applied in all trading fields, from commodity stocks exchange to option trading, from Forex to futures.

Generally, the purpose of technical analysis is to find potential price reversal or pivotal points. These points basically refer the change of market trends, which then indicates when to enter or exit from the market. It is important to know that as with any other techniques in your trading system, these technical analysis indicators could be used alone or with other indicators. Traders are always recommended to learn more different technical methods to analyze different market data because none of these techniques are 100% accurate and 100% foolproof. Taking example of the 'price' data and the 'time' data, which are widely used by FOREX trader.

There are some techniques consider solely on the 'price' factor, while some solely rely on the 'time' factor. The fact is if you know both technical methods, you can take both price and time into consideration during estimating market future trends. This will of course then reduce the risks of losing money in Forex market. Also, it would be wise if traders combine both technical and fundamental techniques when trading Forex, as a country currency value depends a lot on fundamental variables such as war, change of national leaders, terrorism attacks, as well as natural disasters.

Conclusion
Without a doubt, Forex is gaining its popularity fast against other kind of trading. No limited market access, no liquidity issues-after market hours, zero commission fees, low capital requirements with high leverage rates, and no restrictions on short selling -- Forex can be very beneficial to a variety of people. Like any other trading business, if you are new to it, best advice you can get is to learn and practice more before you test your 'wings'.


Seminars, eBooks, Internet, papers, video courses - all these are helpful to raise your confidence level before you trade with your real hard-earn dollars.



Forex Hoster - MetaTrader And Expert Advisor Forex Vps Hosting. Secure Forex Vps MetaTrader & Expert Advisor Hosting For Forex Mt4 Traders. We Support Windows, Mac Osx And Linux. Click Here!

Forex Candlesticks Made Easy! Click Here!

Forex Massacre. Brand New Site From Forex Trading Manuals! Click Here!

Money Beyond Belief By Dr. Joe Vitale And Brad Yates. Joe Vitale - Brad Yates - Teleseminar Recordings Helping Participants Achieve Money Freedom - Freedom From Limiting Financial Beliefs Using Eft Click Here!

Everything You Know Is Wrong! About Being Debt Free That Is!! And It Will Keep You In Debt The Rest Of Your Life! Click Here!

Credit Repair Secrets Revealed! Click Here!

Currency Exchange Cash. Proven Way To Generate Profits. Click Here!

5 EMAs Forex Trading System. No Lies, No Bs! Real Money, Live Account Statements Prove Over 96% Click Here!

Wednesday, 3 December 2008

Trend Lines in Technical Analysis

There are some types of trend lines in technical analysis. They are the followings:

Ascending trend
Descending trend
Reversal trend

As is easy to see, markets tend to trend higher or lower following quite geometrical patterns. In an entire uptrend, it is easy to see a series of higher highs and higher lows. If a joining line is drawn between the rising lows, this is called a trend line and it will often be accurate in projecting where the market will find support on the next hollows, thereby indicating good buying levels. When the price breaks lower through such a trendline, a sharp sell-off will often follow as many Forex market traders will have placed sell stop-orders just below the line for their long positions.The break below an uptrend line is in itself a sell signal, attracting new sellers to the market. It is normally to see the series of lower highs and lower lows in a downwards trending market. The trend line can here be drawn along the descending highs and mirrors the analysis described above.

Technical analysis holds that because every possible bit of information is included in the price of a security, it is not necessary to explicitly analyze the fundamental, economic, political, etc. factors that might influence that price. Because all available information is already included in the current price, only a study of the price movement is required. While it is not explicitly proven that prices must trend, technical analysis relies on empirical evidence and simple common sense to assert that prices do trend. Dow Theory provides much of the empirical time-tested support that prices trend to a technician.

For example, if homeowners believed that interest Forex rate increases will erode the value of their homes, they will be inclined to sell. If there were three similar homes in a neighborhood up for sale, the first house could be sold for $100,000, the second could be sold for $97,500 and perhaps the third could sell for $95,000. Rather than immediately drop down to some formulaic price based on interest rates and other inputs, prices will move consistently over time in one direction. (In a large market like global equities with many participants, prices will move in a zig-zag fashion in one direction.) Prices will continue to decline until there is a balance between buyers and sellers. This gradual (but sometimes quick) directional movement in prices (the trend) is what technical analysis attempts to identify and exploit. If a technical analyst could enter this market, he or she would likely sell short a house because the price trend is downward. A person who does not believe that prices move in trends will find little use of technical analysis. The idea that prices trend is probably the most important concept in technical analysis. Moreover, a person who disagrees with Dow Theory will also likely find fault with technical analysis.

Technical analysis believes that investors en masse display much of the same behavior as the investors that preceded them. "Everyone wants in on the next Microsoft," "If this stock ever gets to $50 again, I will buy it," "This company's technology will revolutionize its industry, therefore this stock will skyrocket,"--these are all examples of investors' attitudes repeating. To a technical analyst, the human characteristics of the market might be irrational but nonetheless they exist. Because investors' attitudes often repeat, investors' actions in the marketplace often repeat as well. I.e., patterns of price movement will develop on a chart that a technical analyst believes have predictive qualities. It is important to understand that the realm of technical analysis is not limited to charting.

Technical analysis is always primarily concerned with price trends. Anything that can influence the price trend is of interest to a technician. As an example, many technicians monitor surveys of investor enthusiasm. These surveys attempt to gauge the general attitude of the investment community to determine whether investors are bearish or bullish. Technicians use these surveys to help determine whether a trend will reverse or whether a new trend will develop. A technician would be alerted that a trend might change when these surveys report extreme investor reactions. When surveys are overly bullish, for example, a technician will look for evidence that an up trend will reverse. The logic being that if most investors are bullish, then they would have already bought the market (anticipating that the market will move higher). But because most investors are bulllish and have invested, it is safe to assume that there are few buyers remaining in the market. With most investors long, there are more potential sellers in the market than buyers despite the fact that the overall attitude of investors is bullish. This implies that the market is set to trend down and is an example of a technical analysis concept called contrarian trading.


Forex Hoster - MetaTrader And Expert Advisor Forex Vps Hosting. Secure Forex Vps MetaTrader & Expert Advisor Hosting For Forex Mt4 Traders. We Support Windows, Mac Osx And Linux. Click Here!

Forex Candlesticks Made Easy! Click Here!

Forex Massacre. Brand New Site From Forex Trading Manuals! Click Here!

Money Beyond Belief By Dr. Joe Vitale And Brad Yates. Joe Vitale - Brad Yates - Teleseminar Recordings Helping Participants Achieve Money Freedom - Freedom From Limiting Financial Beliefs Using Eft Click Here!

Everything You Know Is Wrong! About Being Debt Free That Is!! And It Will Keep You In Debt The Rest Of Your Life! Click Here!

Credit Repair Secrets Revealed! Click Here!

Currency Exchange Cash. Proven Way To Generate Profits. Click Here!

5 EMAs Forex Trading System. No Lies, No Bs! Real Money, Live Account Statements Prove Over 96% Click Here!

Forex Glossary

Appreciation - A currency is said to "appreciate " when it strengthens in price in response to market demand.

Arbitrage - The purchase or sale of an instrument and simultaneous taking of an equal and opposite position in a related market, in order to take advantage of small price differentials between markets.

Around - Dealer jargon used in quoting when the forward premium/discount is near parity. For example, "two-two around" would translate into 2 points to either side of the present spot.

Ask Rate - The rate at which a financial instrument if offered for sale (as in bid/ask spread).

Asset Allocation - Investment practice that divides funds among different markets to achieve diversification for risk management purposes and/or expected returns consistent with an investor's objectives.

Back Office - The departments and processes related to the settlement of financial transactions.

Balance of Trade - The value of a country's exports minus its imports.

Base Currency - In general terms, the base currency is the currency in which an investor or issuer maintains its book of accounts. In the FX markets, the US Dollar is normally considered the 'base' currency for quotes, meaning that quotes are expressed as a unit of $1 USD per the other currency quoted in the pair. The primary exceptions to this rule are the British Pound, the Euro and the Australian Dollar.

Bear Market - A market distinguished by declining prices.

Bid Rate - The rate at which a trader is willing to buy a currency.

Bid/Ask Spread - The difference between the bid and offer price, and the most widely used measure of market liquidity.

Big Figure - Dealer expression referring to the first few digits of an exchange rate. These digits rarely change in normal market fluctuations, and therefore are omitted in dealer quotes, especially in times of high market activity. For example, a USD/Yen rate might be 107.30/107.35, but would be quoted verbally without the first three digits i.e. "30/35".

Book - In a professional trading environment, a 'book' is the summary of a trader's or desk's total positions.

Broker - An individual or firm that acts as an intermediary, putting together buyers and sellers for a fee or commission. In contrast, a 'dealer' commits capital and takes one side of a position, hoping to earn a spread (profit) by closing out the position in a subsequent trade with another party.

Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 - An agreement that established fixed foreign exchange rates for major currencies, provided for central bank intervention in the currency markets, and pegged the price of gold at US $35 per ounce. The agreement lasted until 1971, when President Nixon overturned the Bretton Woods agreement and established a floating exchange rate for the major currencies.

Bull Market - A market distinguished by rising prices.

Bundesbank - Germany's Central Bank.

Cable - Trader jargon referring to the Sterling/US Dollar exchange rate. So called because the rate was originally transmitted via a transatlantic cable beginning in the mid 1800's.

Candlestick Chart - A chart that indicates the trading range for the day as well as the opening and closing price. If the open price is higher than the close price, the rectangle between the open and close price is shaded. If the close price is higher than the open price, that area of the chart is not shaded.

Central Bank - A government or quasi-governmental organization that manages a country's monetary policy. For example, the US central bank is the Federal Reserve, and the German central bank is the Bundesbank.

Chartist - An individual who uses charts and graphs and interprets historical data to find trends and predict future movements. Also referred to as Technical Trader.
Clearing - The process of settling a trade.

Contagion - The tendency of an economic crisis to spread from one market to another. In 1997, political instability in Indonesia caused high volatility in their domestic currency, the Rupiah. From there, the contagion spread to other Asian emerging currencies, and then to Latin America, and is now referred to as the 'Asian Contagion'.

Collateral - Something given to secure a loan or as a guarantee of performance.

Commission - A transaction fee charged by a broker.

Confirmation - A document exchanged by counterparts to a transaction that states the terms of said transaction.

Contract - The standard unit of trading.

Counterparty - One of the participants in a financial transaction.

Country Risk - Risk associated with a cross-border transaction, including but not limited to legal and political conditions.

Cross Rate - The exchange rate between any two currencies that are considered non-standard in the country where the currency pair is quoted. For example, in the US, a GBP/JPY quote would be considered a cross rate, whereas in UK or Japan it would be one of the primary currency pairs traded.

Currency - Any form of money issued by a government or central bank and used as legal tender and a basis for trade.

Currency Risk - the probability of an adverse change in exchange rates.

Day Trading - Refers to positions which are opened and closed on the same trading day.

Dealer - An individual who acts as a principal or counterpart to a transaction. Principals take one side of a position, hoping to earn a spread (profit) by closing out the position in a subsequent trade with another party. In contrast, a broker is an individual or firm that acts as an intermediary, putting together buyers and sellers for a fee or commission.

Deficit - A negative balance of trade or payments.

Delivery - An FX trade where both sides make and take actual delivery of the currencies traded.

Depreciation - A fall in the value of a currency due to market forces.

Derivative - A contract that changes in value in relation to the price movements of a related or underlying security, future or other physical instrument. An Option is the most common derivative instrument.

Devaluation - The deliberate downward adjustment of a currency's price, normally by official announcement.

Economic Indicator - A government issued statistic that indicates current economic growth and stability. Common indicators include employment rates, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, retail sales, etc
.
End Of Day Order (EOD) - An order to buy or sell at a specified price. This order remains open until the end of the trading day which is typically 5PM ET.

European Monetary Union (EMU) - The principal goal of the EMU is to establish a single European currency called the Euro, which will officially replace the national currencies of the member EU countries in 2002. On Janaury1, 1999 the transitional phase to introduce the Euro began. The Euro now exists as a banking currency and paper financial transactions and foreign exchange are made in Euros. This transition period will last for three years, at which time Euro notes an coins will enter circulation. On July 1,2002, only Euros will be legal tender for EMU participants, the national currencies of the member countries will cease to exist. The current members of the EMU are Germany, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, italy, Spain and Portugal.

EURO - the currency of the European Monetary Union (EMU). A replacement for the European Currency Unit (ECU).

European Central Bank (ECB) - the Central Bank for the new European Monetary Union.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) - The regulatory agency responsible for administering bank depository insurance in the US.

Federal Reserve (Fed) - The Central Bank for the United States.

Flat/square - Dealer jargon used to describe a position that has been completely reversed, e.g. you bought $500,000 then sold $500,000, thereby creating a neutral (flat) position.

Foreign Exchange - (Forex, FX) - the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another.

Forward - The pre-specified exchange rate for a foreign exchange contract settling at some agreed future date, based upon the interest rate differential between the two currencies involved.

Forward points - The pips added to or subtracted from the current exchange rate to calculate a forward price.

Fundamental analysis - Analysis of economic and political information with the objective of determining future movements in a financial market.

Futures Contract- An obligation to exchange a good or instrument at a set price on a future date. The primary difference between a Future and a Forward is that Futures are typically traded over an exchange (Exchange- Traded Contacts - ETC), versus forwards, which are considered Over The Counter (OTC) contracts. An OTC is any contract NOT traded on an exchange.

Good 'Til Cancelled Order (GTC) - An order to buy or sell at a specified price. This order remains open until filled or until the client cancels.
Hedge - A position or combination of positions that reduces the risk of your primary position.

Inflation - An economic condition whereby prices for consumer goods rise, eroding purchasing power.

Initial margin - The initial deposit of collateral required to enter into a position as a guarantee on future performance.

Interbank rates - The Foreign Exchange rates at which large international banks quote other large international banks.

Leading Indicators - Statistics that are considered to predict future economic activity.

LIBOR - The London Inter-Bank Offered Rate. Banks use LIBOR when borrowing from another bank.

Limit order - An order with restrictions on the maximum price to be paid or the minimum price to be received. As an example, if the current price of USD/YEN is 102.00/05, then a limit order to buy USD would be at a price below 102. (ie 101.50)
Liquidity - The ability of a market to accept large transaction with minimal to no impact on price stability.

Liquidation - The closing of an existing position through the execution of an offsetting transaction.

Long position - A position that appreciates in value if market prices increase.
Margin - The required equity that an investor must deposit to collateralize a position.

Margin call - A request from a broker or dealer for additional funds or other collateral to guarantee performance on a position that has moved against the customer.

Market Maker - A dealer who regularly quotes both bid and ask prices and is ready to make a two-sided market for any financial instrument.

Market Risk - Exposure to changes in market prices.

Mark-to-Market - Process of re-evaluating all open positions with the current market prices. These new values then determine margin requirements.

Maturity - The date for settlement or expiry of a financial instrument.

Offer - The rate at which a dealer is willing to sell a currency.

Offsetting transaction - A trade with which serves to cancel or offset some or all of the market risk of an open position.

One Cancels the Other Order (OCO) - A designation for two orders whereby one part of the two orders is executed the other is automatically cancelled.

Open order - An order that will be executed when a market moves to its designated price. Normally associated with Good 'til Cancelled Orders.

Open position - A deal not yet reversed or settled with a physical payment.
Over the Counter (OTC) - Used to describe any transaction that is not conducted over an exchange.

Overnight - A trade that remains open until the next business day.
Pips - Digits added to or subtracted from the fourth decimal place, i.e. 0.0001. Also called Points.

Political Risk - Exposure to changes in governmental policy which will have an adverse effect on an investor's position.

Position - The netted total holdings of a given currency.

Premium - In the currency markets, describes the amount by which the forward or futures price exceed the spot price.

Price Transparency - Describes quotes to which every market participant has equal access.

Quote - An indicative market price, normally used for information purposes only.

Rate - The price of one currency in terms of another, typically used for dealing purposes.

Resistance - A term used in technical analysis indicating a specific price level at which analysis concludes people will sell.

Revaluation - An increase in the exchange rate for a currency as a result of central bank intervention. Opposite of Devaluation.

Risk - Exposure to uncertain change, most often used with a negative connotation of adverse change.

Risk Management - the employment of financial analysis and trading techniques to reduce and/or control exposure to various types of risk.

Roll-Over - Process whereby the settlement of a deal is rolled forward to another value date. The cost of this process is based on the interest rate differential of the two currencies.

Settlement - The process by which a trade is entered into the books and records of the counterparts to a transaction. The settlement of currency trades may or may not involve the actual physical exchange of one currency for another.

Short Position - An investment position that benefits from a decline in market price.

Spot Price - The current market price. Settlement of spot transactions usually occurs within two business days.

Spread - The difference between the bid and offer prices.

Sterling - slang for British Pound.

Stop Loss Order - Order type whereby an open position is automatically liquidated at a specific price. Often used to minimize exposure to losses if the market moves against an investor's position. As an example, if an investor is long USD at 156.27, they might wish to put in a stop loss order for 155.49, which would limit losses should the dollar depreciate, possibly below 155.49.

Support Levels - A technique used in technical analysis that indicates a specific price ceiling and floor at which a given exchange rate will automatically correct itself. Opposite of resistance.

Swap - A currency swap is the simultaneous sale and purchase of the same amount of a given currency at a forward exchange rate.

Technical Analysis - An effort to forecast prices by analyzing market data, i.e. historical price trends and averages, volumes, open interest, etc.
Tomorrow Next (Tom/Next) - Simultaneous buying and selling of a currency for delivery the following day.

Transaction Cost - the cost of buying or selling a financial instrument.

Transaction Date - The date on which a trade occurs.

Turnover - The total money value of all executed transactions in a given time period; volume.

Two-Way Price - When both a bid and offer rate is quoted for a FX transaction.

Uptick - a new price quote at a price higher than the preceding quote.

Uptick Rule - In the U.S., a regulation whereby a security may not be sold short unless the last trade prior to the short sale was at a price lower than the price at which the short sale is executed.

US Prime Rate - The interest rate at which US banks will lend to their prime corporate customers

Value Date - The date on which counterparts to a financial transaction agree to settle their respective obligations, i.e., exchanging payments. For spot currency transactions, the value date is normally two business days forward. Also known as maturity date.

Variation Margin - Funds a broker must request from the client to have the required margin deposited. The term usually refers to additional funds that must be deposited as a result of unfavorable price movements.

Volatility (Vol) - A statistical measure of a market's price movements over time.
Whipsaw - slang for a condition of a highly volatile market where a sharp price movement is quickly followed by a sharp reversal.
Yard - Slang for a billion.



Forex Hoster - MetaTrader And Expert Advisor Forex Vps Hosting. Secure Forex Vps MetaTrader & Expert Advisor Hosting For Forex Mt4 Traders. We Support Windows, Mac Osx And Linux. Click Here!

Forex Candlesticks Made Easy! Click Here!

Forex Massacre. Brand New Site From Forex Trading Manuals! Click Here!

Money Beyond Belief By Dr. Joe Vitale And Brad Yates. Joe Vitale - Brad Yates - Teleseminar Recordings Helping Participants Achieve Money Freedom - Freedom From Limiting Financial Beliefs Using Eft Click Here!

Everything You Know Is Wrong! About Being Debt Free That Is!! And It Will Keep You In Debt The Rest Of Your Life! Click Here!

Credit Repair Secrets Revealed! Click Here!

Currency Exchange Cash. Proven Way To Generate Profits. Click Here!

5 EMAs Forex Trading System. No Lies, No Bs! Real Money, Live Account Statements Prove Over 96% Click Here!